Last weekend’s roller coaster ride is a prime example of why sports gambling is so difficult, and why I encourage absolutely no one to dump their life-savings into it.
I was incredibly close to going a perfect 5-0 over the weekend, while at the same time I just as easily could’ve had an O-fer run. That’s how fickle this game is. It takes patience, dedication and a lot of luck. A TON of it.
Instead of having an undefeated weekend run, I went a certainly respectable 3-2 with my Home Dawg bets.
Let’s break the pure luck of it all down a little further… remember my over guarantee of 39.5? Well, Wisconsin poured 38 points on Michigan State. How many did Sparty score? A big fat goose egg, leaving the total at 38, two points from hitting the over. Ugh. What a shame.
And while Iowa State easily knocked off West Virginia on the road, and had no problem covering, winning by 23, it absolutely would’ve been a different story if the Mountaineers’ quarterback wasn’t knocked out of the game in the first quarter.
West Virginia actually held an early touchdown lead, then was promptly out-scored 38-7 the rest of the way, the majority of which with a backup quarterback. The game was tight well into the second half, too. Ugh, times two.
So, after those two near misses, I started out a dismal 1-2, but made a magnificent comeback in the NFL.
The Dolphins covered +3.5 on a touchdown with six seconds remaining while the Saints won outright. It was a nice finish to the weekend, pulling out an incredible winning record. But, boy, did I ever sweat it out. This truly is a game of chance, no matter how much studying you do.
My record now stands at 10-5 over the last few weeks, so we are certainly making money, boys and girls.
As we turn our attention to week eight of the college football season and week seven in the NFL, I find myself swirling in the wind a bit, grasping for anything. There aren’t many college lines I like, heck, there are a ton of really crappy games on the slate. I HATE this college lineup. But, the NFL lineup isn’t much better. There aren’t any home underdogs that I even remotely like.
So let’s get moving, shall we?
As you can see, I’ve yet to have a losing week. Hopefully I can keep this hot-streak rolling.
SEASON RECORD: 10-5
Last week: 3-2
- Lines courtesy of Draftkings Sportsbook
- Winners are in bold
1. Iowa State (-7) at Texas Tech
Texas Tech is a tough one to read but Iowa State seems to have things clicking. I’m 1-1 on my Cyclones picks, so I’m going to ride the Clones as a favorite this week. The Red Raiders started out slow, losing to a below average Arizona squad before getting blown out by OU, then somehow pulled off a big win over Oklahoma State, putting up 45 points two weeks ago.
They are coming off a blowout loss to Baylor, but as we know now, the Bears have something cooking. I don’t know about these two teams and I don’t like this line, I think it’s a little too high. Hopefully, the public can bet it down a bit. So, my advice is to wait for the last second, if the line stays where it’s at, then pull the trigger. But Iowa State covers, and it may even be a push. Remember the last time Iowa State played in Texas? The heat got to them.
2. BHURL’S SPICY MUSTARD HOT DOG LOCK OF THE WEEK: Michigan (+9) at Penn State
The public money is ALL OVER the little Lions this week, and I’m all for it. This game started out at -7 and has already been bumped up to -9 thanks to 59 percent of the money (Per Vegasinsiders.com) on Penn State. Take Michigan, please. I’ve watched both these teams closely the last two weeks, and Penn State isn’t as good as their record shows while Michigan isn’t as poor as everyone thinks. I originally wasn’t going to put money on this one, but the movement has been too enticing to pass up.
The Wolverines may not win, but they can keep it within a touchdown.
I know I missed my lock a week ago, but it was by a mere two points. I’m ready to get back into winning territory.
Purdue at Iowa
I’m also 1-1 on my Iowa picks so far. As I’ve found in the past, it’s pretty difficult to bet on a team or school you’re invested in. Being a life-long Iowa fan and a graduate of the journalism school, I tend to stay away. So, my advice this week is to avoid any Hawks point spread bets.
These stats say it all for me, courtesy of Covers: Purdue is 11-3 against the spread in their last 14 games on field-turf. But hold on, let’s take it even further: The pride of West Lafayette, Indiana is 12-4-2 in their last 18 road games against a team with a winning record.
Additionally, Iowa rarely plays well as huge Big Ten favorites, and they seem to struggle with Purdue every year. The Boilermakers are coming off a big win over Maryland while Iowa is in the midst of a two-game skid. Hell, after last season’s debacle at Purdue, I’m not even sure they win. Or, they could blow them out. The saving grace could be that the public is all over Purdue. Vegasinsider.com has the Boilermakers receiving 69 percent of the money. This game has sketchy written all over it. My advice is to take a week off, at least on the point spread. Which leads me to my next pick…
3. UNDER OF THE WEEK: Purdue at Iowa - Under 48.5
Hammer this, and hammer it good. The Hawks, as we’ve seen the past two weeks, have a terrible offense but a very strong defense. Purdue won’t be able to score much, but there’s no way Iowa is putting on a show. This could be close and it’s going under.
Just two college point spreads I like this week, and an under to make things interesting. I have a bad feeling about week eight. It may be a week you want to stay away from the college slate all together.
4. Arizona Cardinals (+3) at New York Giants
I like the NFL lines even worse this week. But I’ll bless you with this incredible stat I found - Road underdogs are 41-21-1 ATS through six weeks, per Covers. So what’s that tell you? Take the road underdogs. The Giants burned me a few weeks ago, and I like how rookie Arizona Kyler Murray is playing. The Giants stink and Arizona squeaks this one out for their third straight victory, moving to .500.
Murray places himself high atop the leader board in the Rookie of the Year conversation after this triumph. And, I might add how these are two of the worst defenses in the league with two rookie quarterbacks squaring off — someone has to win, right? Take a look at the over, which is daring you to take it at 49. It’s going to be a shootout. This could be an opportunity to hedge your bets. Just saying.
BONUS PICK: You thought I was done, didn’t you? You thought wrong. As a giant NBA fan, I have another futures pick to dish out following my Raptors guarantee a week ago.
Freshly minted Laker, Anthony Davis at +1200 to lead the league in scoring is some pretty decent value. With LeBron James feeding him the ball and running the break every night, I don’t see how this doesn’t lose. The only way it doesn’t hit is either The Brow gets injured or he’s sat for “load management” purposes. Trust me, Davis is going to absolutely eat under the bright lights of Hollywood.
Get this locked in before the season starts Oct. 22 and thank me later.
That closes the books on a light week for me. Consider this a gift, go out and enjoy having extra money and don’t stress over going 0-fer. It’s never fun. But, if you’re in a bind, remember, bet the home 'dogs.